Part 2 of a 2-part series on how artificial intelligence is transforming workplaces and redefining jobs.
Part 1 explored key statistics, predictions and analysis about AI in the workplace. In this section, we will examine reports and predictions about the industries and occupations most likely to be affected by AI, which occupations are considered safe from automation, and how workers and workplaces can respond to the coming changes.
A number of resources discuss the likely impact of AI on the workplace, but predictions about who is most likely to be affected (as well as when and how) vary widely. Repetitive, easily-automated jobs are quite likely to be replaced, along with many low-skill occupations. But knowledge workers and other white-collar occupations are threatened as well. AI is likely to alter nearly every type of work and workplace, even if the exact nature of the changes remains to be seen.
A LinkedIn Pulse post, Jobs You Never Thought Could Be Replaced By Robots Probably Will Be, names 10 professional fields “threatened by advances” in automation, big data, and machine learning: healthcare, insurance, architecture, journalism, finance, education, human resources, marketing and advertising, law, and law enforcement. The article emphasizes the fact that “computers threaten more than low-skill jobs like factory workers, retail clerks, and waiters,” since the more sophisticated computers become, the more sophisticated the work they can complete.
Drawing on the World Economic Forum report, The Inquirer names five jobs likely to be on the chopping block, including personal assistants, technical support agents, cab drivers, factory workers, and doctors. (More specifically, the report predicts that machines may eventually replace doctors in performing surgeries.)
The BBC offers a report on “the jobs robots will steal first.” The piece names taxi drivers, factory workers, journalists, doctors, and cocktail servers as those in the line of fire. A companion story offers an interactive graphic that allows users to search for a job to determine the likelihood it will be automated in the next 20 years.
CNBC suggests that knowledge workers (lawyers, librarians, policy analysts, professors, journalists), bank tellers and office workers may be heavily affected by automation. While this could be problematic for developed economies with high proportions of knowledge workers, the piece concludes that “workers should not be overly worried. Previous technological revolutions, such as the rise of the computer, created millions of new jobs in IT and automation could create [new] work for existing employees.”
VentureBeat names 10 jobs that A.I. and chatbots are poised to eventually replace, listing both occupations likely to end up on the chopping block, and the technology that stands to replace each job. At-risk positions include web designer/web developer, online marketer, office manager, accountant, HR professional, journalist, editor, lawyer, doctor, and psychologist/therapist. While the article’s predictions cannot be proven or disproven with certainty, the “tech that will replace” each listed occupation already exists, illustrating very specifically the ways in which AI may change or eliminate certain tasks or positions.
A Financial Times piece examines jobs that are least and most vulnerable to replacement by robots or other automation. Among the safest jobs are recreational therapists, healthcare social workers, surgeons,1 athletic trainers, clergy, foresters, audiologists, choreographers, dentists, and farmers. The jobs most vulnerable to automation are library technicians, accounts clerks, insurance underwriters, maths technicians, sewer workers, telemarketers, title examiners, tax preparers, cargo handlers and watch repairers.
MUO names 8 Skilled Jobs That May Soon Be Replaced By Robots, including call center employees, accountants, real estate agents, writers, attorneys, professional drivers, medical staff, and cashiers.
Tech Insider considers the impact AI might have on high-earning occupations (those who earn $350,000 or more per year), citing a recent New York Times feature that predicts 33% to 50% of finance employees could lose their jobs to automation software within the next 10 years. Because computers can be optimized to perform a single task extremely well, it is becoming possible to program machines to conduct complex financial analysis more effectively and efficiently than humans can. Financial Planning provides further discussion of AI in the finance and banking sector.
Entrepreneur takes a slightly different approach, examining jobs at risk of automation in terms of the type or nature of work conducted. At-risk categories include jobs that are repetitive (factory and assembly line workers, for example), low-skill (such as drivers, janitors, cashiers and line cooks), or high-skill but narrow scope (stock brokers, data analysts, some medical professionals, etc.). The article also offers tips for employees on skills and traits that will help to ensure employment in an AI-heavy environment.
An analysis in The Atlantic finds that “jobs performed primarily by women are relatively safe, while those typically performed by men are at risk.” Traditionally male-dominated fields such as truck driving, construction work and carpentry are very likely to be automated, while female-dominated fields like secretarial/administrative work and nursing have much better odds. The piece takes a grim view overall, assuming that nearly 50% of jobs will be eliminated by automation, leading to a future in which families will rely on single incomes earned by women and an “involuntary shift in the division of labor” leads to radical changes to family and gender roles.
Tech Crunch considers the role of AI in healthcare, noting that, while a “digital shift in healthcare in recent years has paved the way for advances in automation, artificial intelligence and even surgical robots,” this does not necessarily mean that technology will begin to replace healthcare workers. Instead, the piece argues, “[t]he reality is that the health value chain is moving from a labor-driven and technology-enabled model to a digital-driven and human-enabled one.” Citing an Accenture report on top digital health trends, the Tech Crunch analysis explores the “five pillars” of an emerging “people first” healthcare landscape: intelligent automation, liquid workforce, the platform economy, predictable disruption, and digital trust. The article makes the case that these technologies—including potentially human-displacing AI technologies—actually “reinforce the role of people in healthcare,” creating a redefinition of the role of healthcare workers, not a displacement.
2020 Vision – Where Do We Go from Here?
Will the emergence of AI transform the workplace, or destroy it entirely?
Clearly the predictions about AI’s effects on human employment vary widely. Where some models forecast a sort of robot apocalypse, others see a bright future defined by innovation and human-AI collaboration. The reality will likely fall somewhere in between, as workers learn to navigate the changes and innovations spurred by automation and advancing technologies.
Some jobs are likely to become entirely automated (and thus obsolete for humans), while others will be created to manage intelligent machines. Workers will need to embrace and adapt to new modes of technology, and may need to retrain or enhance their skillsets to accommodate new robotic colleagues.
Transformation, in other words, seems inevitable. Obliteration can hopefully be avoided through careful planning, effective restructuring and, in all probability, some growing pains as workers, employers and consumers learn to navigate a new, high-tech normal.
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